My Oscar Predictions 2024
It's Oscar Sunday!
What an interesting crop of movies this year. I truly had a great time watching all of the main category nominees, so without further ado, here are my Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
There were SO MANY great movies this year, my God. There's only one Best Picture nominee that I truly despised (Maestro) and the rest were all great in their own unique ways.
If I had a vote, I'd probably give it to Poor Things. It was visually stunning, the story was great, the performances were stellar. Costuming, makeup, score, it had it all, in my opinion.
Barbie is pure love from me. I wish we lived in the timeline where this absolutely dominated all awards season. Nobody better ever doubt Greta Gerwig or Margot Robbie on my watch ever again. The Holdovers was so damn funny and heartfelt, and the performances were amazing.
The Zone of Interest was an important movie that I think everyone should watch to see how evil lives and grows in the banality of everyday life. I read a Letterboxd review that called it two movies: the one you see and the one you hear, and this is probably the best way I can describe it.
Killers of the Flower Moon was another important movie, held up by Lily Gladstone's amazing performance and punctuated with Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro (and Martin Scorsese!). Past Lives broke my heart; American Fiction was as biting in its critique as it was fierce in its overall acting performances. Anatomy of a Fall was engaging and well-paced. Maestro was so far up its own ass, what else is there to say about it? I hate that I had to watch this. Stop letting Bradley Cooper direct himself.
But we all know that Oppenheimer is going to win. It's a technical marvel with a great cast, and Christopher Nolan is never one to bet against as a director.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Best Actress
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Emma Stone – Poor Things
Truly, and I mean this respectfully, what did Annette Bening do to edge out—not even Margot Robbie in Barbie, though truly, how did she get snubbed?—literally anyone else who was in a movie this year? Greta Lee was right there for Past Lives. Margot for Barbie. I watched Nyad and wasn't overly blown away by Annette, especially considering some of her other, meatier roles. This just feels like a shoulder pat because both times she might've won, Hilary Swank was in the conversation?
I did enjoy Anatomy of a Fall, and Sandra Hüller is such a natural, engaging actress. I did not enjoy Maestro, but Carey Mulligan was the only good thing in it (but she was playing a Costa Rican woman, so there's that).
I truly, truly love Emma Stone and how fearless she's gotten in the past decade, and oh my God did I love Poor Things. I wouldn't be disappointed if she wins tonight, it would be well-deserved.
But Lily Gladstone's performance in Killers of the Flower Moon is so quietly devastating. She held my heart that entire film and never let it go. And that she could outpace Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro? She truly deserves the win tonight, her performance was truly mesmerizing.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
I will never, never understand the hype over Bradley Cooper. And I don't envision this being a post I read back 20 years from now being like "My God, I was wrong. The man was a genius the whole time!" Bradley Cooper is so self-serious and starving for the validation of an Oscar that he makes previously hungry actors look like they never even wanted the win. Who's out here asking for him to do all these press interviews where he talks about missing Leonard Bernstein, a man he'd never met, and being possessed by his spirit as he directed? The year Bradley Cooper is the lock is the year I go refill my cocktail when it's time to present Best Actor.
Colman Domingo is such a great actor, I love it when he pops up in movies or TV shows (he was just in Drive-Away Dolls, which I saw last weekend, and he was a definite scene-stealer). His portrayal of Bayard Rustin is magnetic.
Similarly, Jeffrey Wright is always a delight when you see him in projects, and his ability to shift back and forth between comedy, drama and satire in American Fiction is great.
Paul Giamatti was so god-damned funny in The Holdovers that I wouldn't be mad at him winning, but I truly believe that if Cillian Murphy doesn't win for Oppenheimer, then what was all this for, you know? That's not to say he wasn't phenomenal, he gave Oppenheimer (and Oppenheimer) a heart. You can't not reward someone for being a glue that held that massive cast and massive story together.
Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Win: Cillian Murphy
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
This is the most locked-in category of the whole awards season: there's no way that Da'vine Joy Randolph doesn't win for The Holdovers. It's just not happening. She's so engaging in this movie, you truly feel for her as a grieving mother and she's got the arms-length adult you kinda know from your high school vibe down pat. She's great, she's going to win, end of story.
Danielle Brooks was a shining light in The Color Purple; Emily Blunt is finally getting awards recognition after decades of stellar work; America Ferrera's monologue was Barbie; and Jodie Foster's simply just Jodie Foster.
Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
If there were any justice in the world, Ryan Gosling would win for playing Ken, but for some reason Robert Downey Jr. is the 'long-deserved' winner du jour, so he's going to win for Oppenheimer. I truly don't see what was so outstanding about his acting here, but much like Jamie Lee Curtis last year with Everything, Everywhere All At Once, this has to be the career win. It's not like they were ever going to reward him for playing Iron Man.
Mark Ruffalo was a delight in Poor Things, Robert De Niro was menacing in Killers of the Flower Moon, and I legit cackled at some of the line deliveries from Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction. They're honestly all deserving.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.
Should Win: Ryan Gosling
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