My Oscar Predictions 2025

It's Oscar Sunday!

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I've watched all the movies, I've got my dip ready to make (recipe here), and I'm looking forward to Conan hosting, Nick Offerman announcing, and all the red carpet fashion (and f*ckery)!

Here are my predictions ahead of tonight's ceremony: 

Best Picture

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Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Okay, let's tackle these one at a time. Anora is probably my favourite of the bunch; I love Sean Baker's movies and their aesthetics. I love the New York-by-night cityscape and how lived-in the world of Anora is. Also Mikey Madison is just fantastic, really scrappy and an underdog you just want to take under your wing and be like "You can do better than this Russian fuckboy." 

The Brutalist is entirely too long. I was dreading this for weeks simply because of the runtime. But then I went to the theatre and sat through it (though I optimized my time during the intermission, I'll tell ya that much) and it was quite enjoyable! Although now, on the other side of it all, I'm wondering... why did it need to be three hours and thirty-four goddamn minutes long. It's a very immersive story; the set design, costuming, makeup and hair are all phenomenal, as are the performances. This probably would've done amazingly as a HBO miniseries that we all talk about on Monday mornings. 

Another immersive film: A Complete Unknown. Take me to that New York, please! I also appreciated how this was simply the story of Bob Dylan's rise and ends as he goes 'electric' because sometimes those biopics that span decades are such slogs to sit through. Gimme a sequel in about 15-20 years with Timothée Chalamet playing Bob at another point in his life. 

Oooh, did I speak too soon about Anora being my favourite? I loved Conclave as well. So tightly-paced, well-acted and interesting, bolstered by all those A++++ performances (Ralph Fiennes? Isabella Rosellini? John Lithgow? Stanley Tucci??? That one Italian guy who bitchly vaped in the background of a lot of scenes????). In a perfect world, maybe this would be the frontrunner. I can't understand why it's not. 

Dune: Part Two... I didn't get Dune (2021) and I didn't want to, so I wanted to 'get' Dune: Part Two even less. I can appreciate the all-star cast and Denis Villeneuve's directing, and how totally immersed you get in whatever planet that is, but I just don't have it in me to learn the intricacies. Give me 12 more Planet of the Apes movies over another Dune! 

Bye, Emilia Pérez.

I'm still thinking about I'm Still Here and by the time Oscar Sunday comes around it'll be about two weeks? Three? Since I had my heart broken by this gorgeous, devastating film. It's a perfect blueprint on how to live in these times, with a message that's just as relevant today as it was during Brazil's military dictatorship. 

It was almost impossible to find Nickel Boys but I'm so glad I watched it. This is shot entirely from first-person perspective, which you'd think would get tiresome but didn't. Except for maybe the modern day scenes, because it looked very obviously like the actor (Daveed Diggs) was wearing a backpack with a camera on it versus the past scenes where all the other actors talked to the camera and treated it like one of the main characters. The story was also very compelling, about two Black teens at a reform school in the '60s and all the horrors that entails. 

I can't do body horror, or horror in general, so although I'd heard raves and generally just love Demi Moore, I was kinda dreading The Substance. I was surprised that I could tolerate the body gore scenes and found the grossest part when Sue (played campily by Margaret Qualley, I wish she'd received a nomination as well) pulled that chicken leg out of her belly button. The overall aesthetic, with how claustrophobic yet wide the shots were really added to the atmosphere. Set in Hollywood with all the palm trees and glitz, you'd think this may be campy but it just adds to the overall horror of the movie and the message it's sending. Love Demi Moore, love the inventiveness of the script and the directing, so rooting for Coralie Fargeat as well!

I missed the Wicked train when the musical came out in 2003. I blame the slow internet in my hometown. I bet I would've made this my entire personality back then if I'd had access to reliable internet. That being said: Wicked is bloated and I'm confused as to why it got the Twilight/Harry Potter/Hunger Games treatment of being split in two (though I guess I just answered my own question...). The lighting is off in a lot of scenes and I want my dang Emerald City to sparkle like a gemstone, not look all tarnished and washed out. I did like Cynthia and Ariana in this; in fact, all of the cast was pretty spectacular. And saying this as someone who didn't bother Googling the storyline (but knew that this was the origin story of The Wicked Witch of the West) it's so funny to me that this is basically a high school rivals story. Mean Girls if they were witches. 

Will Win: Emilia Pérez is the frontrunner, I believe? Unless you look at all the guilds, which went for Anora. Either way, I think if Karla Sofía Gascón's hateful tweets didn't tank this film's chances then it'll probably win. But she said a lot of vile stuff, and, let's be honest, Emilia Pérez is a trash movie anyway, so hopefully as the awards season as dragged on, more voters have been less inclined to reward it.
Should Win: Anora

Best Actress

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Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here

As I said, I missed the Wicked train so I have no frame of reference for whether Cynthia Erivo's Elphaba stacks up against Idina Menzel's or any other Broadway actress's version. But those pipes! I also loved learning all the ways Cynthia contributed to her Elphaba, from helping make costuming and makeup/hair choices to singing live and actually doing the flying stunts. You can't argue with her talent, she'd deserve if it she won, but I wonder if Wicked For Good may be her Oscar showcase? Someone tell me in the comments whether you think she's got a shot for the sequel!

The less said about Karla Sofía Gascón the better, imo. 

I just wanted to take Ani to a nice restaurant and tell her to forget about Vanya and just enjoy her life because she's so young; Mikey Madison did well at presenting Ani as formidable yet vulnerable, but only when she wants to crack. I don't really know her from much (a bit part in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood may be it?) but I'm very curious as to where her career goes from here if she's already this good! 

I love Demi Moore's resiliency. That speech she gave at the Golden Globes? The fact that that was her first major win in her 40-year career?! Demi has been such an indelible part of Hollywood throughout the '80s and '90s, it's almost unfathomable that she's never gotten her flowers until now. Her commitment to playing Elisabeth Sparkle in The Substance sells the whole movie; you wouldn't believe it if it wasn't played the way Demi plays it. I would be very happy if she wins. 

My heart broke the whole way through I'm Still Here and that's all down to Fernanda Torres. The quiet way she plays Eunice Paiva, the heartbreak and fear telegraphed on her face without the performance ever becoming bombastic or Oscar bait-y. The scene in the ice cream shoppe, when she sees all the fathers with their children and realizes that her husband will never come home? My heart shattered. I've been thinking of this movie off and on ever since I saw it and Fernanda's performance is one that's going to stick with me. I won't be shocked when this ranks on all those 'best performances of the 21st century lists' now until the end of time. She'd be a very deserving winner. 

Will Win: Oh man, how do I pick?! Demi, Fernanda and Mikey have all split the prizes pretty evenly. Hopefully this doesn't mean Karla Sofía Gascón slides in there. I'm going to go withhhhhhh Fernanda Torres, because that's who I'd vote for. But I won't be disappointed if Demi's name is called!
Should Win: Demi Moore (The Substance) or Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

PS. Just know that I was editing this up until Sunday morning, waffling over who I think will win. I'm with Fernanda as of bedtime, let's see if this changes once more before I hit publish! 

Best Actor

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Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Listen, I enjoy Sebastian Stan. I wouldn't say I'm a stan (eh? eh?) by any means but I do enjoy it when he pops up in movies; he's got very expressive eyes and internalizes the emotions to make bigger punches. But after all the shit going down with You-Know-Who in the White House, I'm honestly just angry that I've been forced to watch this.*

I'm going to lump these two in together because I have a question for both: what do Ralph Fiennes and Colman Domingo have to do to win Oscars? Because they're consistently great. Reward them!

I was not looking forward to seeing A Complete Unknown because all the trailers and posters made it look like terrible cosplay. I love Bob Dylan but I have to (controversially?) admit that I'm not much of a Timothée Chalamet fan. I can admit that he's talented but he always looks like he thinks he's in on a joke the rest of us aren't cool enough to understand. And his red carpet style has been bugging me, I'll admit it. So I was dreading seeing this movie because I figured it was just an exercise in vanity, but then holy crap, it was great! The marketing team did not do the trailers/advertising justice. He sounds just like Bob, sings like him and was ambling around like him, too! But listen, even I can admit that it's just a matter of when Timothée Chalamet wins an Oscar. Could he be an outsider spoiler tonight? Mayhaps. It wouldn't be an awful performance to win for, and would probably be who I vote for if I had a ballot.

Adrien Brody has been the frontrunner all Oscar season and I did think he was quietly great in The Brutalist but now that I've had time to think about it, marinate in my feelings, I wonder what the big scene is that got him on the critics' radars. The story's about the all-consuming need to build a brutalist-style building but there's no bombast. There's nothing that's really stand-out, it's just the overall way Adrien embodies the character. Is that enough? I'll admit I soured when I learned that they used AI to smooth out his Hungarian. It seems all but inevitable that he's going to win his second Oscar; at least it's a good movie! 

Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

Best Supporting Actress

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Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Is this the first time in a long time that a majority of actual supporting performances have been nominated? We're getting there! 

Isabella Rossellini steals the very few scenes she's in Conclave and elevates them. Monica Barbaro's Joan Baez is an excellent foil to Timothée Chalamet's Bob Dylan. I'd love to be in the marketing meetings where they decided to push her over Elle Fanning, they were both great; how'd they flip that coin? Felicity Jones shows up about 100 minutes into The Brutalist and doesn't really do much beyond tell us who her husband used to be before the war. I want Zoe Saldaña to get her flowers, but not for Emilia Pérez (plus she's more of a leading performance, even if she's not the title character). 

I've had exactly zero interest in Ariana Grande's career—other than when she popped up on Saturday Night Live or one of the late-night shows doing her bang-on impressions—because I was an adult by the time she popped up on Nickelodeon and can only name maybe three of her songs. I've also just... never been a Wicked girlie. The internet sucked in my hometown in 2003, so I missed the initial frenzy. Honestly, if anything, I was exhausted by all the Wicked publicity by the time it actually came out. You couldn't watch TV without a trailer or a product placement or tie-in popping up. 

But then I watched it and while it's not my favourite movie of 2024 by any stretch (the terrible cinematography and lighting are certainly a factor!), I can appreciate the talent of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. And when you read about the training and the work Ariana put in to transforming herself into Glinda and then realize how effortlessly it all came across on screen? For my money, she's who I'd pick.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Should Win: Ariana Grande

Best Supporting Actor

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Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

I'm baffled that Guy Pearce isn't a serious contender. Baffled, I tell ya. I'm going to borrow heavily from my The Brutalist review on Letterboxd: "Guy Pearce exists in a vacuum for me where, despite the knowledge that he's had a decades–long successful career that's spanned continents, (as far as I know) I've only seen him in two movies and they're both perfect: THE TIME MACHINE (2002)—which was my personality for ~probably~ three months when it was released on DVD and I kept renting it at Ten to Ten (really regretting not just buying it outright cause I've yet to come across the option to buy a physical copy now)—and THE BRUTALIST (2024).

"Whatever else ya've done, bud, I support ya, but just know that based on these two movies alone I may just consider you the best actor of your generation. What an output. You should be proud; if it were up to me ya'd get that Oscar."

By far the strongest performance in The Brutalist, in my opinion. Which is why I'm not a tastemaker, I guess. 

I loved Anora and Yura Borisov is quite fun as the stoic Russian muscle who trails Ani around and doesn't really say much; it's all in his face and how deadpan his line delivery is. Edward Norton is just so shucks and wholesome as Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. I honestly forgot it was him for a bit, which goes to show how talented he is. I'm annoyed, as I mentioned, that I had to watch The Apprentice, but I always enjoy when Jeremy Strong pops up. I love how committed he is to the craft. 

I'm honestly baffled at how much love Kieran Culkin is getting for A Real Pain... that movie, thank God with a short run-time, didn't say a damn thing; and his character is so insufferable. Dude, shut up. Like, is this an extension of his Succession praise? Is that why he's winning all these awards? (I haven't seen Succession and I have no interest in it, honestly I think everyone's making it up that they like it so much.) I'm also so sick of his acceptance speeches being exercises in vanity about how much better he is because he doesn't take any of this seriously. Get over yourself. 

Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Should Win: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

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Who do you want to win? 

*I recognize that I'm an adult in possession of free will and I don't have to watch anything, but at this point I've got a 12-year streak of watching all the nominated films for Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Supporting Actor and I refuse to let him ruin a passion of mine.