My Oscar Predictions 2026
Happy Oscar Sunday!
I truly enjoyed watching movies this year. There were so many great films out, and so many great nominees this season. Who knows how accurate I'll be with my predictions, but the pleasure was watching everything!
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
This is a rare year where I enjoyed practically every movie nominated (not you, F1). There was something enjoyable about them all, so in theory, that means I'd be pleased with whatever the outcome. Don't take my gif choice as what I think will or should win, I just wanted to highlight some of my top films. Let's break this down.
Bugonia. I love Yorgos Lanthimos and I love Emma Stone. I've been a fan since The Favourite and Poor Things solidified my love for this partnership. If these two do nothing else but make absurd films together, I wouldn't complain.
F1, I hated. How did this get nominated? Did anyone watch this? I hate that I had to get a month's subscription to Apple TV for this. I'm going to paste my Letterboxd review, cause I think I said it all there: "If this hadn't been nominated for Best Picture, I wouldn't have bothered, but I'm a completist and I don't want to break my streak. This was the most cliché of clichéd sports movies: high octane, great sound, who's-this-old-fuck-who-used-to-be-great played by Brad Pitt (take a shot every time they talk about how hot shit Sonny used to be in the '90s and it also applies to Brad Pitt. You'd be drunk in 15 minutes.), young buck who needs to be humbled before he can be great, third act fake-out that maybe just maybe the main character will be out for good but of course he isn't, underdog wins it all... The only thing this movie was missing was a cheesy, overwrought '80s power rock song over the end credits. Instead we get Brad Pitt, who looks his age, don't let this movie gaslight you, driving with that smirk across the desert."
I was surprised that I enjoyed Frankenstein. I'm not a gothic or horror fan; I've never read the original novel, I've seen Frankenstein (1931) so many times and I love that (even if it's not as faithful an adaptation). But this was grand, sweeping, and so visually stunning. I would never bet against Guillermo del Toro, the man knows how to make a film. I'm stoked that this is getting a Criterion release, not because I'd buy it, but because I can't wait to see the cover art.
Hamnet broke my heart. I love how lush and scenic it was. You're totally absorbed in Agnes's world and grief. I borrowed the book this is based on, Hamnet and Judith, from the library but honestly I returned it immediately because it was still too fresh from watching this devastating movie.
As someone who loves midcentury everything and production design, Marty Supreme should rank higher on my personal favourite list than it does. But this is bottom half for me of all these nominees. Is that the appeal of Safdie films? I just had constant anxiety watching Marty getting himself into scrape after scrape and after a certain point it was like, "Bud, I can't root for you anymore. You're in your own way." This should've been Gwyneth Paltrow's comeback vehicle. Why didn't anyone rally behind her for nominations? Gwyneth, please come back to movies! Also fuck this movie for platforming Kevin O'Leary. Take it from a Canadian, you don't know what you're unleashing. Now he gets to brag that he was in a Best Picture-nominated film. (Saving my other grievances for the relevant section below...)
I'm a Leo ride-or-die, so I was sat for One Battle After Another even if it was about salmon fishing in the Yemen or whatever. I love the tight storyline, the sweeping epic it becomes, and how each actor plays a key role central to the story. It feels like, with all the precursors it has won, that this is the frontrunner and I'd be okay with that!
I quite enjoyed the immersive experience of The Secret Agent. I love how it plays with memory and remembrance and trauma. You hope against hope it'll work out. Sometimes it doesn't. This was beautifully shot and beautifully told.
Ever seen I watched The Worst Person in the World I have been firmly in Joachim Trier's and Renate Reinsve's corners. They're the Norwegian version of Emma-and-Yorgos. Give them unlimited time and money to do whatever they want. This was another beautiful film about memory, grief, and family trauma that echoes through the ages. It's so tender, and it's also held up by a great ensemble.
Every shot of Train Dreams could be a framed picture, it's that visually stunning. It's a sparse tale on life in all its beauty and all its ugliness, and the power of pressing on. This is another one that should belong in the Criterion Collection simply so I can see its artwork.
But for my money, I'd have to give my vote (if I had one, alas) to Sinners. This film is going to be remembered as an all-time classic. One hundred years from now it'll top those AFI 100 Years... lists. When all the actors featured in this film start receiving lifetime achievement awards, the clips from Sinners will get the loudest applause. Utterly original, perfectly acted, masterfully directed, and the care that went in to making this movie? Reward it. That scene in the juke joint when the spirits transcend time? Chills. Chills, chills, chills.
For my money, it has to be Sinners. I think the momentum could trend that way, too. But again, this was such a great year for film. If it's not Sinners or One Battle After Another, at least there's a rich pool to choose from (except you, F1).
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
WILL WIN: One Battle After Another (or Sinners!)
SHOULD WIN: Sinners
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
I would watch Emma Stone do anything. Loved her in Bugonia. You know who was robbed in Bugonia? Jesse Plemmons. I like to imagine he was sixth on the ballot. I am genuinely baffled that Kate Hudson squeezed in here. Song Sung Blue is a fine movie but it's got the air of forgotten '90s movie that plays all the time on TBS and you never happen to catch it as it starts, you always watch it from the middle. Rose Byrne gave me so much anxiety in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Similar to Emma Stone, I'd watch Renate Reinsve in anything; she's such an internal, heartbreaking actress. I can't wait to see her in more films (I've got a good backlog to work through!).
Which brings us to Jessie Buckley. Tore my damn heart out through Hamnet. If there's a sure bet this Oscar season, it's surely her. There's no way on earth she's losing this Oscar. She deserves it. Hamnet falls apart without her; she's so totally believable as Agnes Shakespeare. She drags you into the heights of love and the depths of grief. This poor woman, give her the Oscar!
WILL WIN: Jessie Buckley
SHOULD WIN: Jessie Buckley
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
I'm forever a Leo gal, let's get one thing clear. The man could sit in front of a camera reading the phone book and I'd be sat on opening night. He's great in One Battle After Another, and if this were a weaker year, I'd say he has the Oscar shored up. But the momentum is not trending towards him. How I'd love to be surprised tonight!
Ethan Hawke is a veteran, a cinephile, and I think about the video of his visit to the Criterion Closet all the time. I'd love to listen to this man talk about films. He's great in Blue Moon. Also wouldn't be upset if this name is surprise called tonight. Blue Moon only works because of Ethan Hawke.
Wagner Moura is great in The Secret Agent. You know so little about his character but by the end you're rooting against all hope that it works out for him. This is the second year in a row that Brazil has broken my heart, I'm making it a mission to source out more Brazilian films to watch, hit me up with suggestions!
Ugh, Timothée. Is now a time to gloat that I've never really gotten the hype? Too many people liked Call Me By Your Name and decided that he's this generation's tragic waif soft boy. Austin Butler is right there. So's Jacob Elordi. They're making interesting choices and taking risks. Timmy's played the same character with the same limited facial movements in every film. Plus, he's lapped Bradley Cooper in terms of wanting the Oscar. Combined with this totally unlikeable press tour where he talks about how he's the greatest doing it, how he wants to be remembered for greatness, and crapping on the opera and ballet and other art forms? Buddy, read the room. It's my fervent hope that he loses this Oscar and eats a giant slice of humble pie afterwards. Maybe if he goes away, licks his wounds, and returns with a great performance he'll deserve the Oscar. Honestly, he probably should've won it last year for playing Bob Dylan...
Which brings me to my choice: Michael B. Jordan. Playing twins, playing them both so perfectly. Another film with a wonderful ensemble and what a magnificent actor to have led them all. Reading about what it took to put these performances on film, the care and attention Michael gave to the roles, honestly, he deserves the Oscar. And if the cheer at the SAG Awards when his name was called is any indication, perhaps he's getting the love? Fingers crossed!
WILL WIN: Michael B. Jordan
SHOULD WIN: Michael B. Jordan
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
I had to watch Weapons at 9am on a Friday morning, that's how much horror freaks me out. Don't hate me, but I don't get the hype. I think Amy Madigan is creepy and otherworldly as Aunt Gladys, but this whole movie doesn't make sense. It took them waaaay too long to figure out that the paths cross at her house. And then it all ends justlikethat? But Amy Madigan was far and away the best part of this movie, in my opinion, and it's such an utterly unique character, I could see the Academy wanting to reward her for this and for a lifetime of work.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning both hold up major tentpoles for Sentimental Value. Take either away and the film falls apart.
Teyana Taylor has a small but memorable and vital role in One Battle After Another. She's the ignition. And it's such a wonderful performance, I wouldn't hate it if she wins tonight.
But for my money, I'd vote for Wunmi Mosaku. She's the heart of Sinners, a north star for the other characters to follow. She gives the others humanity and guidance. And Wumni is always so fun to watch on screen. I love her in this film, I love her in any film. I'd be so happy if her name is called tonight.
WILL WIN: Wunmi Mosaku
SHOULD WIN: Wunmi Mosaku
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
I literally have no clue who's going to win Best Supporting Actor. I wouldn't even bet a loonie.
On the one hand you have Benicio del Toro, who plays a small but memorable part in propelling the action in One Battle After Another; on the other, Sean Penn, who plays the big bad in such stark and memorable fashion, the bombast to Benicio del Toro's more quiet character.
Then you have Stellan Skarsgård, who is planted firmly in the middle of the trauma, the angst, the grief, and the forgiveness of Sentimental Value. He's great in this.
Then you have Delroy Lindo, who played probably my favourite character in Sinners. He's wise, he's funny, he's profound. He's at the centre of some of the most funny moments in the film, but he also gets some of the best dialogue. And again, reading about the care he took in his portrayal and the way he worked with Ryan Coogler to get it right, it's such a masterful performance.
Then you have Jacob Elordi. I know nothing about this man other than he's on Euphoria, he dates (dated?) a model, he hated having to make The Kissing Booth movies, and he keeps choosing roles that challenge him. I've seen him in nothing else. I don't even think I've heard his real speaking voice. He's so good as The Creature. So good. Much better than whatever Timothée claims he's doing. May this be the Oscar season that we move past trying to make Timothée happen.
WILL WIN: Honestly, who knows. Wise bet seems to be Sean Penn based on the prescursors.
SHOULD WIN: Delroy Lindo
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
It Was Just an Accident, France
The Secret Agent, Brazil
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
This year I decided to add the nominees for Best International Feature Film to my watchlist, based on the fact that I saw both The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value in theatres and absolutely loved them, and because I've been trending more towards international film in the last few years thanks to my Criterion Channel subscription.
I've already spoken about The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value so I'll spare you all here. I'm still thinking about It Was Just an Accident. Who hasn't fantasized about righting a wrong done to them? Who doesn't think about what they'd do if given the chance. It's a powerful film but it's also very important. Ditto The Voice of Hind Rajab. I don't know if I've ever been so tense watching a movie before. The use of the real telephone conversation added to it. Sirāt is another one I keep thinking about. I couldn't guess what was going to happen moment to moment. My shoulders were tense and raised and kept getting higher. I've never been more relieved for the end credits. It was like Mad Max: Fury Road but in in the present.
WILL WIN: It Was Just an Accident
SHOULD WIN: Any of them, they're all great
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