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My Oscar Predictions

What a year. It's been draining at the best of times, but we're hopefully turning a corner (I say this as my province, which has largely and mostly successfully kept COVID-19 at bay, is re-introducing strict lockdowns to curb an outbreak), and will start to see some return to normality in our lives. This, for me, includes the Oscars and finally having an Oscars ceremony. 


via giphy

For the first time ever, I never stepped foot into a theatre during Oscars season. All of the movies were on Netflix or the Cineplex Store or Amazon. As someone who loves going to the movies, and has sometimes spent a whole Saturday at the theatre watching back-to-back-to-back movies, this year has made me appreciate the simple joy of going to the theatre, and I can't wait to do it again.

That being said, I always make it a point to watch every movie nominated in the acting categories, and for Best Picture. And I felt that this was a particularly strong year, especially in the actress categories. I feel like I'll be happy with any outcome on Sunday, but it's still fun to predict, right? 

So, here are my Oscar predictions... 

Best Picture 

The Father 
Judas and the Black Messiah 
Mank 
Minari 
Nomadland 
Promising Young Woman 
Sound of Metal 
The Trial of the Chicago 7 

What a crop of movies to represent this year! Strong female leads, diverse stories, a mixture of biographical and fictional stories, women directors! I can't say that I hated any of these movies, though, as you'll see in my 'Should Win' section that I definitely know which two I'd rate towards the bottom of the list, and even then, I still liked both of them. 

If I'm going on personal preference and which one I loved the most, I'd give the Oscar to Promising Young Woman. It's the combination of killer script (literally), Emerald Fennell (who I love), Carey Mulligan (who defied her typical indie/period script to play Cassie) and the '00s nostalgia (I had 'Stars Are Blind' in my head for days after that drug store scene) that does it for me. 

But I have to say that Nomadland was also so spectacular; as was Sound of Metal and Minari and Judas and the Black Messiah. The Father had me gripped until the last shot; and Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 were also great but they seem like the kind of shoo-in movies that would've won maybe even five years ago. 

Should Win: Any of them! Well, with The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Mank at the bottom of the list...
Will Win: Nomadland

Best Actress

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman 

Usually it feels like there's only one or two strong performances in the Best Actress category; or they fail in comparison to the types of roles in the actor categories, but this year...man, they all delivered. And each actress has won a major pre-cursor, so there's no real front runner and no real dark horse. This is always my favourite category to watch, and this year was no exception. 

I love everything Viola Davis does, she's always electric. Andra Day...what a debut. Vanessa Kirby was one of the best parts of the early seasons of The Crown and I'm glad she's starting to build a strong movie career. Frances McDormand is always great, and Carey Mulligan was so great in Promising Young Woman; it was fun to see her deviate from the staid period films she's carved her niche into. 

That being said, while I'd be happy with any win this year, I have to admit that I'm rooting for a Carey win here; but I think it's probably going to be Viola or Frances. 

Should Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Will Win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal 
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

I was totally prepared, after watching Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, to declare that Chadwick Boseman was my pick and that he'll absolutely win, no competition, because he was electrifying and so fun to watch. Then I saw Sound of Metal and Riz Ahmed blew me away with his heartbreaking, subtle performance as a drummer losing his hearing. 

I'd love to hear Riz's name called tonight, but I think, for a great performance and for a body of work, and for a life that was tragically lost too soon, it'll be Chadwick Boseman who wins. In terms of the other actors, I think Anthony Hopkins and Gary Oldman are masters of their craft, naturally, but there wasn't anything revolutionary in either portrayal for me. And Steven Yeun... I'm so excited to see what he does next; he was great. 

Should Win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal or Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Best Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy 
Olivia Colman, The Father 
Amanda Seyfried, Mank 
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari 

Give Glenn Close an Oscar! (Just not for this movie...) And Olivia's always great. Maria Bakalova was hilarious, but I'd never seen the first Borat movie, so I kinda felt removed from this. Amanda Seyfried has always been a great actress; hopefully this is the first of many nominations. But give this to Youn Yuh-jung: she was perfect. 

Should Win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari 
Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari 

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami...
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

This is so obviously Daniel Kaluuya's Oscar moment, it's not even worth betting on. He's great in Judas and the Black Messiah; as is Lakeith Stanfield. I've said it elsewhere but I'll say it here: if their names are attached to the project, it's instantly a must-watch for me. The other nominees in this category (Sacha, Leslie and Paul) were great, but Daniel and Lakeith were on another level. 

Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
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